Tomorrow’s Technology in Today’s War: The Use of AI and Autonomous Technologies in the War in Ukraine and Implications for Strategic Stability

Abstract：Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, artificial intelligence has reportedly been used to analyze different types of data to enhance decision-making and inform targeting, to process enemy communications, in facial recognition technology, and in cyber defense, to name a few. Drawing on open-source information and scholarly research, this report, authored by Margarita Konaev of Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, surveys the use of AI in the war in Ukraine and assesses the potential implications of these systems and capabilities for conflict escalation and strategic stability. Although AI has played an important role in enhancing battlefield information processing, it is difficult to estimate whether these technologies are being used at scale and to what effect. Although in its current form, the use of AI has had a limited effect on the risk of escalation, this may change with more extensive deployment, especially of untested systems, which highlights the value of confidence building measures to minimize the risk of inadvertent escalation.