Strategic Stability and the Ukraine War

Abstract：The war in Ukraine represents the first major inter-state conflict involving the widespread employment of long-range strike weapons and missile defense. The implications resulting from the deployment and use of these weapon systems extend beyond the Ukrainian theater and affect the broader strategic competition between Russia and NATO. This paper explores those implications, asking how the deployment and use of long-range strike weapons and missile defense systems in Ukraine affect NATO-Russia strategic stability. I argue that the missile war in Ukraine affects the prospects of strategic stability by shaping Russian and NATO force posture and strategy development, and helping to predict the technological trajectories of offensive and defensive missile capabilities. In the medium to long term, this can put additional pressure on arms control and crisis stability between Russia and NATO.