Preventing the (Un)thinkable: Escalation Scenarios and Risk Reduction Measures for Russia and NATO following the War in Ukraine

Abstract：The spectre of war with Russia looms large in the imagination of European and American policymakers in 2022. Since both Russia and NATO-states US, UK and France have nuclear arsenals, the nuclear threat has also returned to the forefront, despite the numerous analyses of many observers over the last decades that nuclear weapons had become irrelevant. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has reawakened thinking in terms of risks and ‘escalation’. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz offered such a rationale when he refused to send German tanks to Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has been more willing to supply the besieged Ukrainians with heavy arms, but he too has selfimposed limits to avoid poking the Russian bear.